jsand229
0x5e566213adad34d2a6650e94db155fb7a872dc9b
- Realised P&L
- $111.52
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $812.37
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the WI-08 House seat? · No | 0.790 | 0.890 | $278.23 | +$31.26 |
| Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat? · Yes | 0.403 | 0.650 | $205.06 | +$77.86 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? · No | 0.930 | 0.944 | $125.53 | +$1.86 |
| Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.978 | $107.94 | +$14.11 |
| Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? · No | 0.408 | 1.000 | $52.75 | +$31.22 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? · Yes | 0.733 | 0.655 | $34.00 | −$4.05 |
| Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.053 | $7.46 | −$7.70 |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.013 | $1.38 | +$0.05 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.192 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$110.63at 0.241Will John Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election?
- +$3.14at 0.329Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
- +$0.83at 0.757Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.02at 0.222Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$-2.26at 0.133Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-17 22:08 | Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award? | SELL | 0.43 | $33.11 |
| 08-17 22:06 | Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026? | BUY | 0.850124314 | $93.83 |
| 08-16 01:03 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.229 | $0.25 |
| 08-16 01:03 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.229 | $24.50 |
| 08-05 04:02 | Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $13.92 |
| 08-05 04:01 | Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027? | SELL | 0.1288235294 | $4.38 |
| 07-31 00:44 | Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat? | BUY | 0.4132570784 | $93.01 |
| 07-24 03:27 | Will John Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election? | SELL | 0.41 | $11.48 |
| 07-21 00:10 | Will the Democratic Party win the WI-08 House seat? | BUY | 0.7899999997 | $246.97 |
| 07-18 01:59 | Will John Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election? | BUY | 0.2302747271 | $18.03 |
| 07-18 01:52 | Will John Williams advance from the AK-AL primary election? | BUY | 0.2371541434 | $21.25 |
| 07-13 19:22 | Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat? | BUY | 0.3781525385 | $34.19 |
| 07-11 18:10 | Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.9299999996 | $123.67 |
| 07-11 18:07 | Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.1283384404 | $19.31 |
| 07-07 15:35 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.81 | $14.59 |