0x5e3796a5e1f69c911a619be7882f40ce5034cf6e
- Realised P&L
- $-9.99
- Volume
- $472.38
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $22.63
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.895 | $8.05 | +$0.58 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.958 | $5.75 | +$0.47 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.105 | $4.83 | −$2.77 |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.120 | 0.134 | $2.81 | +$0.29 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.075 | $0.82 | −$2.04 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.021 | $0.37 | −$4.05 |
| Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? · No | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.80at 0.984Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?
- +$0.25at 0.740Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
- +$0.20at 0.530Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$0.15at 0.770Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.15at 0.330Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 20:21 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.32 |
| 07-10 03:32 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.208 | $1.04 |
| 06-21 00:36 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $3.52 |
| 06-16 16:40 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $5.28 |
| 06-14 11:30 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $3.85 |
| 06-12 07:15 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 04-25 12:14 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.77 | $11.55 |
| 04-23 09:41 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.816 | $6.53 |
| 04-23 09:40 | Modi out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.902 | $4.51 |
| 04-23 09:39 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $4.20 |
| 04-23 09:38 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $7.11 |
| 04-15 21:27 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.093 | $2.51 |
| 04-15 21:27 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.908 | $9.08 |
| 04-15 21:26 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.068 | $1.09 |
| 04-12 07:00 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.74 | $3.70 |