oveafternoontea
0x5e3685d169d86fc22ff28d7d53a5e89d5a8bf415
- Realised P&L
- $192.03
- Volume
- $27.4k
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $267.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $89.59 | −$0.31 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $30-$40 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $75.70 | −$0.23 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.955 | 0.963 | $62.56 | +$0.49 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $21.99 | +$0.01 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $40? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.900 | $18.00 | −$1.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.23at 0.930GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?
- +$19.72at 0.974GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?
- +$14.67at 0.980Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
- +$13.25at 0.983Will Ethena reach $0.16 in April?
- +$9.90at 0.910Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of April 20 above $420?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 06:35 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.98 |
| 10-13 06:34 | Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $30-$40 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? | BUY | 0.999 | $75.92 |
| 10-13 06:34 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $40? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 10-13 06:33 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $89.91 |
| 09-20 01:26 | Will Solana dip to $30 in September? | BUY | 0.997 | $121.63 |
| 09-20 01:24 | Will Ethena dip to $0.08 in September? | BUY | 0.99 | $32.67 |
| 09-20 01:23 | Will XRP dip to $0.60 in September? | BUY | 0.994 | $178.92 |
| 09-13 02:37 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at <$1.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 14 – Sep 18? | BUY | 0.998 | $38.92 |
| 09-13 02:37 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of September 14 above $5.50? | BUY | 0.999 | $155.84 |
| 09-12 23:28 | Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of September 14 above $20? | BUY | 0.9863736241 | $136.00 |
| 09-07 07:10 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of the week of Sep 7 – Sep 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $331.67 |
| 09-04 23:49 | Will XRP dip to $0.80 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.999 | $290.59 |
| 09-04 23:45 | Trump out as President by September 30? | BUY | 0.985 | $205.87 |
| 09-02 06:16 | Will CZ post 80-99 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9988511138 | $159.00 |
| 09-02 06:13 | Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.998590008 | $263.00 |