Goldsmithd
0x5e2a96820f128aad1cb12dc58af88d3b383e2bd6
- Realised P&L
- $-214.11
- Volume
- $13.4k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $97.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics · Minnesota Lynx | 0.620 | 1.000 | $37.00 | +$14.06 |
| Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-09-03? · Yes | 0.670 | 1.000 | $30.00 | +$9.90 |
| Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.255 | $16.06 | −$0.31 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 20? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $14.01 | +$0.01 |
| Thunder vs. Spurs · Spurs | 0.560 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.03 |
| Spread: Germany (-1.5) · Germany | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.92 |
| New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces · New York Liberty | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.48 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? · No | 0.422 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.43 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 24? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.54 |
| Will Norway vs. England end in a draw? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$212.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$373.50at 0.500Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$358.11at 0.500Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$262.39at 0.500Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
- +$259.91at 0.500Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$90.58at 0.500Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 11:16 | Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? | BUY | 0.26 | $16.38 |
| 09-03 12:09 | Will Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club win on 2026-09-03? | BUY | 0.67 | $20.10 |
| 08-21 06:50 | Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics | BUY | 0.62 | $22.94 |
| 07-30 08:01 | New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces | BUY | 0.36 | $6.48 |
| 07-24 02:44 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 24? | BUY | 0.26 | $7.54 |
| 07-16 09:03 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $534.46 |
| 07-16 09:03 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 20? | BUY | 0.9989999296 | $14.00 |
| 07-16 09:02 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $300.00 |
| 07-16 09:01 | Will Richard Grenell be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $128.62 |
| 07-16 09:01 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $235.00 |
| 07-16 09:01 | Will Richard Grenell be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $385.86 |
| 07-16 09:00 | Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.998 | $21.48 |
| 07-16 09:00 | Will Richard Grenell be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $515.00 |
| 07-16 09:00 | Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.998 | $499.00 |
| 07-16 08:58 | Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.999 | $521.00 |