0x5E1d83b4c11B280F5E125bCBc73FfB77E0cD2887-1762979411858
0x5e1d83b4c11b280f5e125bcbc73ffb77e0cd2887
- Realised P&L
- $-67.78
- Volume
- $2.3k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $12.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.829 | 0.979 | $5.90 | +$0.90 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.955 | $2.30 | +$0.30 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.036 | $1.67 | −$5.31 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.019 | $1.05 | −$2.95 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.019 | $0.97 | −$4.03 |
| Will Perplexity AI announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.032 | $0.61 | −$1.89 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.249 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.33 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.262 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.52at 0.182Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$6.91at 0.570Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$2.00at 0.500Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$1.49at 0.770Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
- +$0.41at 0.908Claude 4.7 released by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 14:57 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2489999601 | $4.33 |
| 06-13 11:14 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8299999792 | $2.00 |
| 06-13 11:13 | Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2624999807 | $9.00 |
| 06-13 11:13 | Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0548628344 | $6.00 |
| 05-22 05:08 | Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999803 | $4.86 |
| 05-15 23:18 | Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.129925265 | $4.00 |
| 05-15 23:17 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999925 | $9.00 |
| 05-14 17:51 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0739999816 | $4.00 |
| 05-14 17:50 | Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1142769982 | $10.00 |
| 05-14 17:50 | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.58 | $4.00 |
| 05-14 17:49 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.4299999298 | $3.00 |
| 05-14 17:43 | Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999823 | $5.41 |
| 04-15 03:09 | Claude 4.7 released by April 30? | BUY | 0.9079999873 | $4.00 |
| 02-21 06:02 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.00 |
| 02-07 19:26 | Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.1739999552 | $3.00 |