PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

europa

0x5dd16dafa38f55698cde3b84dc4414f1b77da343

Realised P&L
$4.70
Volume
$26.4k
Markets traded
44
Open portfolio
$690.59

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded44
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample17 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration25.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.2800.275$173.84−$3.16
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.2100.205$117.88−$2.88
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.2700.265$100.70−$1.90
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.2500.255$86.70+$1.70
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.5400.505$79.49−$5.51
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · No0.5000.465$58.13−$4.38
Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.0570.055$28.05−$0.87
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.1170.115$11.45−$0.25
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.0480.046$11.36−$0.45
Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.0720.070$10.43−$0.37
Keith Rabois Combo: Republicans win 5 (TX, IA, KS, AK, MI, OH) · Yes0.0550.066$10.07+$1.57
Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.0320.033$1.57+$0.02
Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.0090.011$0.94+$0.17
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes0.6150.000$0.00−$50.00
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? · Yes0.5840.000$0.00−$81.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-02 11:54Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.0482948944$10.00
11-02 11:53Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.048$0.96
11-02 11:53Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.057$13.68
11-02 11:52Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.057$6.84
11-02 11:51Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.117$11.70
11-02 11:51Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.072$10.80
11-02 11:50Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.009$0.77
11-02 11:50Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.032$1.28
11-02 11:50Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.043$0.86
11-02 11:50Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.056$6.72
11-02 11:47Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.5$62.50
11-02 11:44Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?BUY0.27$102.60
11-02 11:42Keith Rabois Combo: Republicans win 5 (TX, IA, KS, AK, MI, OH)BUY0.056$5.02
11-02 11:42Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?BUY0.2799999997$87.00
11-02 11:40Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?BUY0.21$52.50