Niles449
0x5da3c75f6d45ef86817096761b9b5746b4570de6
- Realised P&L
- $-1.27
- Volume
- $27.4k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $17.92
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on September 30? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $17.92 | −$0.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.22at 0.978Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?
- +$0.19at 0.991Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 1?
- +$0.19at 0.991Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on February 19?
- +$0.11at 0.995Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on March 16?
- +$0.03at 0.998Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 5?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 09:50 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.98 |
| 07-03 04:20 | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.004 | $7.92 |
| 06-22 08:35 | Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $9.54 |
| 05-19 04:29 | Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $9.72 |
| 05-13 03:29 | Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $9.40 |
| 04-25 04:01 | Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.68 |
| 04-23 07:59 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.008 | $9.92 |
| 04-22 08:51 | Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.009 | $9.72 |
| 04-21 08:02 | Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.08 |
| 04-20 07:05 | Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $10.08 |