0x5d8d7570f97a1af9ed40834107ead9f625994d3a
0x5d8d7570f97a1af9ed40834107ead9f625994d3a
- Realised P&L
- $50.26
- Volume
- $839.29
- Markets traded
- 225
- Open portfolio
- $6.15
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded225
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration5.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.325 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.295 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.520 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.325 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.610 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.195 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · No | 0.680 | 0.401 | $0.59 | −$0.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.14at 0.227Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during July Press Conference?
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$6.63at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$5.96at 0.258Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 19:17 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:11 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:11 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:11 | Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:11 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:02 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:02 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:02 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:38 | Will Corpus Christi FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 14:03 | SC Internacional vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 15:45 | Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 12:09 | Will Spalding United FC win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:34 | Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-07? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 07:42 | Wingate & Finchley FC vs. Bedford Town FC: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 13:03 | Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |