0x5d2f66b260702f5c3404afdff4cf6dae1bb45034
- Realised P&L
- $-17.0k
- Volume
- $300.1k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $15.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration32.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.797 | 0.840 | $10.5k | +$528.24 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.895 | $5.0k | +$1.0k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.7kat 0.559Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- +$5.2kat 0.705US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
- +$4.5kat 0.614US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$3.3kat 0.750Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
- +$2.4kat 0.860Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 10:37 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $3.0k |
| 07-30 10:36 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999999 | $1000.00 |
| 07-30 10:34 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6109274503 | $7.1k |
| 07-30 10:32 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $15.0k |
| 07-30 10:30 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.7973798899 | $10.0k |
| 04-08 15:36 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.3476723747 | $6.9k |
| 04-08 15:36 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.3599999982 | $104.62 |
| 04-08 15:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.6628162765 | $6.3k |
| 04-02 06:11 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.7534164512 | $33.7k |
| 03-15 07:16 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.6350773041 | $6.0k |
| 03-15 07:15 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.87 | $10.0k |
| 03-15 07:14 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | BUY | 0.7501632221 | $10.0k |
| 03-13 13:02 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.86 | $15.0k |
| 01-17 08:31 | Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5622006933 | $13.7k |
| 01-14 12:54 | US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7049697787 | $12.4k |