grustniyTanec
0x5d14a05632ac0ea514b1ca434e084dabd419f8bd
- Realised P&L
- $1.9k
- Volume
- $212.8k
- Markets traded
- 233
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded233
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$952.94at 0.559Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$201.85at 0.832Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$197.76at 0.875Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$196.11at 0.946Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?
- +$133.89at 0.982Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 17:19 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through September 25? | BUY | 0.97 | $11.70 |
| 09-21 17:13 | Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in September? | BUY | 0.95 | $5.18 |
| 09-20 22:31 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31? | BUY | 0.973 | $27.68 |
| 09-20 08:40 | Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.944 | $38.15 |
| 09-20 04:05 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.9146450124 | $25.77 |
| 09-20 03:47 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.988 | $104.68 |
| 09-20 03:46 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $341.02 |
| 09-20 03:46 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $129.00 |
| 09-20 03:20 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | BUY | 0.914 | $5.57 |
| 09-11 09:12 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.9887610228 | $413.75 |
| 09-08 15:54 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.989 | $10.83 |
| 09-08 15:54 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.989 | $10.83 |
| 09-08 15:28 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.989 | $215.11 |
| 09-08 08:30 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.989 | $123.63 |
| 09-08 06:15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.989 | $133.63 |