0x5c61b4d4bd458f5b0dd823aeb94208b8d14759b9
- Realised P&L
- $-64.93
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $5.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.255 | $5.10 | −$8.30 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 8? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$18.69 |
| Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.60at 0.082Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
- +$0.74at 0.904Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026?
- +$0.26at 0.357Will Chandler Simpson lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?
- +$0.23at 0.183Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?
- +$0.23at 0.730Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 10:01 | Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 8? | BUY | 0.277 | $5.54 |
| 06-21 02:47 | Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $13.40 |
| 06-19 08:41 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 06-14 00:50 | Will Jordan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.81 | $16.20 |
| 06-12 22:59 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? | BUY | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 06-12 06:11 | Will Panama be the furthest advancing CONCACAF nation at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 06-10 16:11 | Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $7.40 |
| 06-10 06:17 | Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $13.40 |
| 06-09 08:53 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.80 |
| 06-09 02:03 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.829 | $16.58 |
| 06-08 02:53 | Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.29 | $23.23 |
| 06-07 08:48 | Ostium FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.40 |
| 06-07 02:18 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? | BUY | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 05-09 07:02 | Will Chandler Simpson lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 05-08 02:23 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $6.93 |