Kroll703
0x5c47ab436b946c3b70590b4ab1313b574c0c9b02
- Realised P&L
- $-238.7k
- Volume
- $914.2k
- Markets traded
- 435
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-26.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded435
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.8kat 0.746Will Trump say "Elon" 5 or more times during Pennsylvania rally?
- +$2.1kat 0.692Will Trump visit Springfield in September?
- +$2.0kat 0.743Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his Pennsylvania rally?
- +$1.8kat 0.511Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Pennsylvania rally?
- +$1.4kat 0.521Will Tim Walz say "Yale" during the debate?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-21 21:26 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $141.05 |
| 04-21 20:33 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7402567406 | $100.00 |
| 04-21 20:33 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $73.00 |
| 04-21 20:33 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $59.00 |
| 03-07 21:15 | Will Trump say "Drone" this week? (March 15) | BUY | 0.65 | $20.99 |
| 03-07 21:14 | Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? (March 15) | BUY | 0.63 | $9.45 |
| 03-07 21:08 | S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9? | BUY | 0.2785631712 | $50.00 |
| 03-07 21:04 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | SELL | 0.071486371 | $88.64 |
| 03-06 04:27 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | BUY | 0.12 | $48.00 |
| 03-06 04:26 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | BUY | 0.32 | $96.00 |
| 03-06 04:26 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | BUY | 0.31 | $44.20 |
| 03-06 04:25 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | BUY | 0.31 | $99.20 |
| 03-06 04:25 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | BUY | 0.12 | $100.80 |
| 03-06 04:24 | Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | BUY | 0.88 | $176.00 |
| 03-03 20:51 | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BUY | 0.5861457653 | $270.00 |