PolyBot

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Traders

Kroll703

0x5c47ab436b946c3b70590b4ab1313b574c0c9b02

Realised P&L
$-238.7k
Volume
$914.2k
Markets traded
435
Open portfolio
$3.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-26.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded435
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.8% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · Yes0.1960.185$1.7k$100.62
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · No0.5861.000$460.64+$190.64
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0400.064$254.00+$94.00
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? · Yes0.7170.705$250.28$4.32
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.4000.595$178.48+$58.49
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0600.131$130.50+$70.50
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 · Yes0.1400.235$94.00+$38.00
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1200.182$91.25+$31.25
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0190.035$46.58+$20.93
Will Trump say "Drone" this week? (March 15) · Yes0.6501.000$32.30+$11.30
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1750.081$24.15$28.35
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00$2.00
Will Trump win no swing states? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00$900.00
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? · Yes0.3140.000$0.00$239.40
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? · Yes0.2200.000$0.00$44.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
04-21 21:26US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?SELL0.6$141.05
04-21 20:33US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?BUY0.7402567406$100.00
04-21 20:33US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?BUY0.73$73.00
04-21 20:33US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?BUY0.59$59.00
03-07 21:15Will Trump say "Drone" this week? (March 15)BUY0.65$20.99
03-07 21:14Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? (March 15)BUY0.63$9.45
03-07 21:08S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 9?BUY0.2785631712$50.00
03-07 21:04Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?SELL0.071486371$88.64
03-06 04:27Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?BUY0.12$48.00
03-06 04:26Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?BUY0.32$96.00
03-06 04:26Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?BUY0.31$44.20
03-06 04:25Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?BUY0.31$99.20
03-06 04:25Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?BUY0.12$100.80
03-06 04:24Will another country strike Iran by March 7?BUY0.88$176.00
03-03 20:51US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?BUY0.5861457653$270.00