flyflower
0x5c215584b60b336ce89d0b5ce28a963315881908
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $34.0k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $774.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.250 | 0.945 | $601.00 | +$441.89 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.668 | 0.085 | $59.84 | −$410.51 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.430 | $40.77 | −$39.82 |
| Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No | 0.740 | 0.780 | $35.10 | +$1.80 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.911 | 0.739 | $19.40 | −$4.53 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.434 | 0.009 | $11.62 | −$582.05 |
| Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.067 | $7.02 | −$53.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$891.14at 0.135Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026?
- +$342.50at 0.500Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 29?
- +$271.06at 0.300Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$130.00at 0.870Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$72.00at 0.640Will Opinion launch a token by February 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-01 14:34 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $80.60 |
| 05-01 01:34 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.06 |
| 04-29 08:59 | Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.45 | $43.32 |
| 04-22 10:38 | Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.91 | $20.23 |
| 04-22 10:35 | Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.71 | $39.05 |
| 04-18 08:33 | Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.8503906144 | $62.70 |
| 04-15 11:08 | Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9253382708 | $111.20 |
| 04-15 11:07 | Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.91 | $62.79 |
| 04-14 10:47 | Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.956 | $47.80 |
| 04-14 10:46 | Sentio FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.957 | $28.55 |
| 04-14 09:41 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.969 | $969.00 |
| 04-13 08:40 | Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.87 | $170.74 |
| 04-12 07:00 | Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.928 | $202.04 |
| 04-03 05:13 | Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.89 | $87.59 |
| 03-04 11:08 | Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.11 |