0x5c1164d24dc6b099ab1b0f72a2fcfcc71f77a98d
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 273
- Open portfolio
- $268.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded273
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)4.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on November 3? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.330 | $60.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.585 | $54.81 | −$5.15 |
| Will "Obsession" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.155 | $53.91 | −$26.09 |
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.095 | $36.19 | −$43.81 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 30%-35%? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.185 | $21.99 | −$10.11 |
| Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the March meeting? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.485 | $17.04 | −$2.99 |
| Another GTA VI trailer released by November 30? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.170 | $16.75 | −$3.94 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.981 | $7.46 | +$0.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.90at 0.710LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)
- +$0.74at 0.940LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)
- +$0.54at 0.903Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?
- +$0.54at 0.940Will BSC Young Boys win on 2026-01-29?
- +$0.54at 0.910Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 20:58 | Will Democrats win the Texas and Kansas Senate seats, and an independent win Nebraska? | SELL | 0.228 | $9.16 |
| 11-02 19:47 | Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in November 2026? | SELL | 0.7800622536 | $75.18 |
| 11-02 19:34 | Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat? | SELL | 0.32 | $30.06 |
| 11-02 19:29 | Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.73 | $47.28 |
| 11-02 18:43 | Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the March meeting? | SELL | 0.54 | $56.81 |
| 11-02 18:33 | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | SELL | 0.2832536432 | $78.14 |
| 11-02 17:56 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election? | SELL | 0.61 | $14.03 |
| 11-02 17:37 | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat? | SELL | 0.43 | $80.00 |
| 11-02 17:18 | Will "Possible Love" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.65 | $80.00 |
| 11-02 17:16 | Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? | SELL | 0.31 | $37.95 |
| 11-02 16:37 | Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.63 | $80.00 |
| 11-02 16:31 | Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $24.94 |
| 11-02 16:18 | Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | SELL | 0.25 | $27.05 |
| 11-02 16:12 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $9.11 |
| 11-02 15:57 | Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat? | SELL | 0.72 | $77.82 |