Hay-Maker

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

✓ ClearEdge per dollar12.7%

Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.

✓ ClearMarkets traded21

Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.

✕ BlockerProfit concentration64.1% from one position

Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.

▲ CautionSettled sample14 positions

Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.

? Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%

Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.

▲ CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position

Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.