Green581
0x5bfe4ceab396b478b3fba1a6cd58bdd8e0b2a3af
- Realised P&L
- $-10.21
- Volume
- $117.3k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $6.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)69.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31? · No | 0.760 | 0.900 | $6.09 | +$0.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.27at 0.920Will Bank of New York Mellon (BK) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.18at 0.970Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office?
- +$0.18at 0.973Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$0.18at 0.970Debt ceiling raised or suspended by inauguration?
- +$0.11at 0.970Israel banned from Eurovision 2026 by November 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 07:42 | Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31? | BUY | 0.7599999941 | $5.14 |
| 09-02 07:42 | Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.952 | $5.31 |
| 08-08 14:59 | Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9629999953 | $5.38 |
| 08-08 14:59 | Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.941 | $5.99 |
| 07-23 08:18 | Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9939999994 | $6.34 |
| 06-07 09:30 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.85 |
| 06-07 09:30 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $2.99 |
| 05-09 08:56 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $2.96 |
| 05-09 08:56 | Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.993 | $6.54 |
| 04-10 04:09 | Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $6.56 |
| 03-17 11:16 | Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9729999998 | $6.38 |
| 03-17 11:15 | Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? | SELL | 0.994 | $6.38 |
| 02-24 11:55 | Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31? | BUY | 0.9929999998 | $6.38 |
| 02-02 23:54 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on February 3? | BUY | 0.9889999986 | $6.31 |
| 01-29 07:58 | Trump deploys active duty troops to Minnesota by Jan 31? | BUY | 0.9879999139 | $6.24 |