0x5bf593c180622438d123d7b81637dd0c4a72171a
0x5bf593c180622438d123d7b81637dd0c4a72171a
- Realised P&L
- $-3.62
- Volume
- $218.00
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $2.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.750 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.345 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · No | 0.679 | 0.414 | $0.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.267 | 0.035 | $0.13 | −$0.87 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.026 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$3.08at 0.400SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 23?
- +$2.81at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.470Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $236 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$1.95at 0.512Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 09:40 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 22:45 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2669999538 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 14:39 | Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.6789998051 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 06:01 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,110 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 21:58 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 13:50 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 04:48 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 20:47 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 00:41 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 02:56 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 18:45 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 06:28 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:22 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 22:13 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 13:47 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |