livelives
0x5bdd080ae9d00d08235efffe32b80cfc14cb7b4d
- Realised P&L
- $-131.08
- Volume
- $78.6k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $477.49
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)73.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.980 | 0.984 | $196.70 | +$0.70 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.959 | 0.980 | $127.33 | +$2.67 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.950 | $95.00 | +$28.00 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.835 | $58.45 | −$2.45 |
| Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.01 |
| Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.04 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? · No | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$147.90at 0.500Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
- +$17.85at 0.679Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
- +$10.79at 0.962Xi Jinping out in 2025?
- +$5.66at 0.961Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$4.82at 0.954Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 01:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $196.00 |
| 10-21 01:42 | Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $60.90 |
| 10-21 01:40 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $67.00 |
| 08-22 03:10 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $37.23 |
| 08-22 03:10 | Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.985 | $39.40 |
| 08-22 03:09 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.959 | $124.67 |
| 08-22 03:08 | Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.73 |
| 08-22 03:08 | JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | SELL | 0.94 | $95.88 |
| 07-02 10:25 | Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $5.19 |
| 07-02 10:24 | Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.978 | $36.19 |
| 06-21 02:16 | Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.004 | $36.02 |
| 06-21 02:15 | JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $93.84 |
| 06-21 02:15 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? | BUY | 0.995 | $112.53 |
| 06-21 02:14 | Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $210.16 |
| 05-22 15:55 | Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $209.73 |