tonholo
0x5b9186636b7d12983ff18218c915ef4641725545
- Realised P&L
- $-857.52
- Volume
- $36.1k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $13.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration63.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.002 | $4.80 | −$55.16 |
| Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? · Yes | 0.266 | 0.011 | $4.25 | −$103.67 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.001 | $3.67 | −$539.21 |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.001 | $0.46 | −$30.32 |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.001 | $0.07 | −$5.17 |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting? · No | 0.147 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$337.76 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$148.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.50at 0.020Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$2.65at 0.914Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-08 17:59 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0188498 | $56.55 |
| 04-08 17:55 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.017 | $3.42 |
| 02-02 16:39 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.063 | $10.83 |
| 01-28 19:22 | Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.151 | $148.73 |
| 01-28 19:21 | No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1473819248 | $337.76 |
| 01-26 17:35 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.067451663 | $111.52 |
| 01-26 14:13 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.065 | $22.75 |
| 01-25 22:32 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.02 | $29.98 |
| 01-25 22:13 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.023 | $34.50 |
| 01-23 19:08 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0568981601 | $7.51 |
| 01-23 10:23 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0673667981 | $109.38 |
| 01-16 19:09 | Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.243 | $6.08 |
| 01-16 18:56 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.119 | $19.23 |
| 01-15 15:50 | Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.2632513398 | $29.47 |
| 12-05 19:09 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.18 | $30.60 |