mancamo
0x5b6cc97b42129ec3360e6b5e0e434ae6d9315ab5
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $328.4k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $10.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.5kat 0.302Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$770.03at 0.300US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$636.45at 0.690Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
- +$447.34at 0.328Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
- +$440.00at 0.790Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-25 15:17 | Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.017 | $8.50 |
| 03-24 11:04 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.162 | $421.20 |
| 03-24 11:02 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.1650521167 | $1.5k |
| 02-25 11:15 | Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.9079217944 | $290.24 |
| 02-04 22:40 | Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | BUY | 0.69 | $621.00 |
| 02-04 19:34 | Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.21 | $144.29 |
| 02-02 10:41 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $2.4k |
| 01-31 10:23 | Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | SELL | 0.167 | $66.07 |
| 01-29 21:07 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.19 | $7.60 |
| 01-26 23:07 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.0k |
| 01-25 14:01 | Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? | BUY | 0.9100565939 | $104.20 |
| 01-24 20:19 | Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31? | BUY | 0.885 | $848.15 |
| 01-19 10:29 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $910.00 |
| 01-19 10:28 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.5k |
| 01-16 18:55 | Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | BUY | 0.863 | $17.26 |