0x5b5e5413255de70e03efd50b54838e3c8680deb2
0x5b5e5413255de70e03efd50b54838e3c8680deb2
- Realised P&L
- $-9.82
- Volume
- $227.64
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $7.32
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.925 | $1.65 | +$0.65 |
| Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.925 | $1.49 | +$0.49 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? · No | 0.680 | 0.695 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.725 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.425 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $0.95B? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.240 | $0.71 | −$0.29 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.135 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.72at 0.218Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?
- +$3.41at 0.370US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$2.77at 0.273Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?
- +$2.39at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$1.93at 0.450Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of July 20 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 13:15 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 05:14 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:13 | Will Wells Fargo (WFC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $0.95B? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 12:55 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 16:36 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 07:59 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 22:35 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 14:07 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2629999563 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 05:52 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 8? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 21:52 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 00:40 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 16:40 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999181 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 08:01 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 11:39 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999566 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 00:40 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |