0x5B50cafeD7aA1a69077f140a2874ab94999f1742-1763173649676
0x5b50cafed7aa1a69077f140a2874ab94999f1742
- Realised P&L
- $-350.75
- Volume
- $33.8k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $121.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,400 September 21-27? · No | 0.987 | 0.991 | $82.16 | +$0.29 |
| Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? · No | 0.710 | 0.695 | $39.62 | −$0.85 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5? · Yes | 0.172 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.20 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 17-23? · No | 0.971 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$452.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.00at 0.680Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$29.74at 0.873Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3?
- +$15.10at 0.080Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?
- +$13.95at 0.969Will Ethereum reach $2,100 August 10-16?
- +$13.52at 0.300Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-21 01:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? | SELL | 0.999 | $319.67 |
| 06-04 02:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? | BUY | 0.868 | $47.21 |
| 06-04 02:44 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.4 | $65.00 |
| 06-04 02:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? | BUY | 0.864 | $155.52 |
| 03-29 09:03 | Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.71 | $40.47 |
| 03-29 09:02 | Base FDV above $4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6 | $61.20 |
| 03-29 09:02 | Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.76 | $22.80 |
| 03-29 09:02 | Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.76 | $119.91 |
| 03-29 09:02 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? | SELL | 0.997 | $244.26 |
| 03-28 01:46 | Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in March? | BUY | 0.988 | $242.06 |
| 03-21 02:23 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | BUY | 0.991 | $239.82 |
| 03-18 02:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $236.76 |
| 03-17 00:49 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22? | BUY | 0.9905798319 | $235.75 |
| 03-14 13:35 | Will Ethereum reach $2,500 March 9-15? | BUY | 0.999 | $235.76 |
| 03-12 00:39 | Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? | BUY | 0.995 | $234.82 |