0x5b243e9f63e600d3089e4eeeb70f7deef7b170fa
0x5b243e9f63e600d3089e4eeeb70f7deef7b170fa
- Realised P&L
- $707.52
- Volume
- $17.2k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31? · Yes | 0.515 | 0.466 | $455.70 | −$47.67 |
| Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.225 | $169.06 | +$3.76 |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? · Yamal | 0.450 | 0.440 | $155.64 | −$3.54 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.235 | $140.37 | +$68.69 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on October 31? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.205 | $114.70 | −$41.89 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.155 | $109.15 | −$3.52 |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.605 | $106.14 | +$6.14 |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? · Yes | 0.165 | 0.135 | $40.86 | −$9.14 |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.245 | 0.268 | $27.30 | +$2.30 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.045 | $22.20 | +$2.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$811.85at 0.259Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?
- +$262.50at 0.160Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$206.97at 0.694Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-17?
- +$127.30at 0.472Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- +$48.92at 0.200Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 21:13 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.00T and $1.10T on October 31? | BUY | 0.2798589036 | $156.59 |
| 10-17 21:12 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31? | BUY | 0.725232883 | $164.75 |
| 10-17 21:12 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31? | BUY | 0.4510526297 | $338.62 |
| 10-17 10:44 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | BUY | 0.4499999992 | $159.18 |
| 10-17 10:43 | Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.2199999998 | $165.30 |
| 10-17 10:42 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.16 | $112.67 |
| 10-17 10:42 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-17? | BUY | 0.6799999996 | $460.35 |
| 10-17 10:39 | Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5699999983 | $100.00 |
| 10-17 10:38 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.0409999999 | $20.00 |
| 10-17 10:29 | Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.1652094576 | $50.00 |
| 10-14 18:54 | Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $273.81 |
| 10-14 18:54 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $285.29 |
| 07-29 16:32 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.4695966607 | $155.78 |
| 07-29 16:31 | Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.3099999962 | $52.88 |
| 07-29 16:30 | Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.1199999986 | $71.68 |