0x5Ad97558EB3355BD35f3489db7dE915D0ae66870-1770753620799
0x5ad97558eb3355bd35f3489db7de915d0ae66870
- Realised P&L
- $-89.97
- Volume
- $27.5k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $3.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.001 | $2.25 | −$12.75 |
| Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.001 | $0.47 | −$4.53 |
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.124 | 0.005 | $0.28 | −$5.99 |
| Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? · Yes | 0.122 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$101.41 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.82at 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$42.59at 0.580Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?
- +$12.86at 0.280Will West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?
- +$3.57at 0.051Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
- +$-5.00at 0.007Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by February 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-11 17:33 | Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? | BUY | 0.6499999981 | $101.41 |
| 03-10 19:43 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10? | BUY | 0.5799999965 | $58.82 |
| 03-08 14:13 | Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? | BUY | 0.1219633025 | $10.00 |
| 02-28 19:17 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.42 |
| 02-28 19:14 | Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? | SELL | 0.0876876855 | $8.57 |
| 02-12 21:21 | Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | BUY | 0.0089280046 | $5.00 |
| 02-12 21:21 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.0439999918 | $5.00 |
| 02-12 21:20 | Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 10–15 seconds by February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.0509999907 | $5.00 |
| 02-12 21:19 | US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $5.00 |
| 02-11 12:51 | Will the US strike Mexico next? | BUY | 0.004 | $10.00 |
| 02-11 12:51 | Will the US strike Nigeria next? | BUY | 0.0018413985 | $10.00 |
| 02-10 22:19 | Will the US strike Iran next? | BUY | 0.0027881041 | $1.00 |
| 02-10 22:15 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 11? | BUY | 0.1041666667 | $5.00 |
| 02-10 22:10 | Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0106771238 | $5.00 |
| 02-10 22:10 | Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0033301752 | $15.00 |