vivelepen
0x5a544928efd320dc5895d903e8f9271f8c2eda63
- Realised P&L
- $34.68
- Volume
- $33.2k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $6.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.115 | $3.7k | −$1.8k |
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.062 | $2.0k | +$1.0k |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.285 | $196.55 | −$3.45 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.055 | $183.33 | −$16.66 |
| Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.100 | $9.28 | −$0.72 |
| Will David Lisnard receive the most signatures from elected officials in the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.287 | 0.235 | $8.18 | −$1.82 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.034 | $5.59 | −$4.41 |
| France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.045 | $3.75 | −$6.25 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.019 | $1.95 | −$8.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$38.85at 0.072France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?
- +$0.00at 0.070France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?
- +$-4.17at 0.240Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 21:47 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2899999998 | $200.00 |
| 10-31 21:47 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.06 | $200.00 |
| 10-31 17:06 | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $50.00 |
| 10-31 13:41 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.14 | $500.00 |
| 10-30 16:54 | Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0305990711 | $1.0k |
| 10-27 22:35 | Will David Lisnard receive the most signatures from elected officials in the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2871287063 | $10.00 |
| 10-27 22:34 | Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 10-27 22:16 | Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1077269608 | $10.00 |
| 10-27 22:16 | Will Édouard Philippe win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0599353988 | $10.00 |
| 10-27 22:14 | France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30? | BUY | 0.119999999 | $10.00 |
| 10-27 20:01 | France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999999 | $50.00 |
| 10-27 19:56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.22 | $45.83 |
| 10-27 19:54 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2399999992 | $50.00 |
| 10-27 19:51 | France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.0994396055 | $138.85 |
| 10-26 21:11 | France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.0716165507 | $100.00 |