lookolik
0x5a4092b43eaa151be0cbd9d42503d60eafad14f2
- Realised P&L
- $28.10
- Volume
- $16.8k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $251.23
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.130 | $216.36 | −$28.34 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.105 | $34.87 | +$4.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.10at 0.012Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- +$1.76at 0.840Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.66at 0.820Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 11?
- +$0.53at 0.882Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 22?
- +$0.40at 0.882Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 16:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $29.89 |
| 03-30 18:42 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 31? | BUY | 0.9949998655 | $6.73 |
| 03-30 18:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 1? | BUY | 0.9679999985 | $5.00 |
| 03-30 18:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.00 |
| 03-30 18:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 31? | BUY | 0.9399999662 | $4.99 |
| 03-30 18:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $5.00 |
| 03-30 18:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 31? | BUY | 0.9949999244 | $5.00 |
| 03-28 09:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 29? | BUY | 0.9949999784 | $3.46 |
| 03-28 09:51 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 29? | BUY | 0.9809999797 | $3.00 |
| 03-28 09:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 29? | BUY | 0.9829999973 | $4.00 |
| 03-28 09:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 29? | BUY | 0.9949998744 | $4.00 |
| 03-28 09:40 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 29? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.00 |
| 03-28 09:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 28? | BUY | 0.9909999814 | $4.00 |
| 03-28 09:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 28? | BUY | 0.997999758 | $4.00 |
| 03-28 09:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? | BUY | 0.987999999 | $4.00 |