kaicheli
0x5a3e942f44f08b0d483502134b197593926d786c
- Realised P&L
- $3.34
- Volume
- $7.3k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $14.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.998 | 0.997 | $11.88 | −$0.02 |
| Will the Republicans win Leavenworth County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.730 | $2.21 | −$0.03 |
| Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET · Down | 0.438 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.70 |
| Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on November 25? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.10 |
| Bulls vs. Hornets · Hornets | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.10 |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.04 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.70at 0.275Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
- +$3.84at 0.628Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?
- +$1.17at 0.460Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 25?
- +$0.90at 0.987Israel closes its airspace by May 8?
- +$0.53at 0.996Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 11:41 | Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.90 |
| 10-18 11:38 | Will the Republicans win Leavenworth County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7399997621 | $2.24 |
| 09-10 09:14 | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.20 |
| 09-10 09:11 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.8599999602 | $1.73 |
| 08-29 08:43 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.90 |
| 07-23 09:19 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $13.90 |
| 07-23 09:16 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.04 |
| 05-30 08:35 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 05-30 02:49 | Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $59.00 |
| 05-30 02:40 | Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.10 |
| 05-30 02:35 | Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 05-30 02:34 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY | 0.9969999984 | $70.00 |
| 05-28 09:37 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $132.00 |
| 05-23 09:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? | BUY | 0.9979999929 | $132.00 |
| 05-12 11:29 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $132.00 |