0x5a39d8a83089736a6cda75bc1f2b9ae3978d1a91
0x5a39d8a83089736a6cda75bc1f2b9ae3978d1a91
- Realised P&L
- $-4.67
- Volume
- $270.01
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $3.85
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · No | 0.689 | 0.938 | $1.36 | +$0.36 |
| Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.240 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.700 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18? · No | 0.350 | 0.145 | $0.41 | −$0.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.94at 0.412Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
- +$2.59at 0.442Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 08:11 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 00:10 | Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 16:05 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 06:08 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 21:54 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6889999097 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:29 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 03:48 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 18:53 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 21:16 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7409998162 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 11:50 | Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 03:49 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 07:42 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:34 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 07:50 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 23:50 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |