asraful
0x5a3732a019661698a307d0caa5b049cee5e9a251
- Realised P&L
- $-882.28
- Volume
- $69.1k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $23.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · Yes | 0.623 | 0.857 | $23.82 | +$6.51 |
| Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times at The Villages on May 1? · No | 0.464 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$73.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET · Up | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET · Up | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET · Up | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 · Under | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.00 |
| Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1? · No | 0.910 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$189.71at 0.797Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?
- +$117.44at 0.880Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
- +$81.81at 0.790Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1PM ET
- +$67.54at 0.610Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9PM ET
- +$66.67at 0.300Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 08:54 | Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.982 | $49.10 |
| 10-11 01:48 | Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7859999927 | $14.00 |
| 10-10 07:56 | Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.574 | $34.44 |
| 09-01 18:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.0606936231 | $3.00 |
| 09-01 18:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.4399999894 | $10.00 |
| 09-01 18:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | SELL | 0.3 | $14.71 |
| 09-01 18:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1899998949 | $1.32 |
| 09-01 18:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.1899999815 | $8.00 |
| 09-01 18:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | SELL | 0.76 | $9.80 |
| 09-01 18:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | BUY | 0.6199999798 | $8.00 |
| 09-01 18:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | SELL | 0.82 | $6.21 |
| 09-01 18:29 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | BUY | 0.6599999604 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 16:46 | Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $20.90 |
| 09-01 15:30 | Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.9299999963 | $100.00 |
| 08-31 14:55 | Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | SELL | 0.981356405 | $19.00 |