QuarterlyComeback
0x5a223238b202d67c8bcf500cbb0e886813e917a6
- Realised P&L
- $10.0k
- Volume
- $276.2k
- Markets traded
- 469
- Open portfolio
- $27.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded469
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.7kat 0.329Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$2.1kat 0.140Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
- +$1.5kat 0.608Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.201US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.192Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-07 10:24 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5215300034 | $150.00 |
| 10-02 07:05 | Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9306930527 | $10.00 |
| 10-02 07:04 | Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | BUY | 0.8791208791 | $500.00 |
| 09-30 15:43 | Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League? | BUY | 0.3224002321 | $250.00 |
| 09-30 07:03 | Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? | BUY | 0.9587363474 | $200.00 |
| 09-29 10:59 | Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? | BUY | 0.9480659803 | $500.00 |
| 09-29 10:51 | Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? | BUY | 0.9128185098 | $200.00 |
| 09-29 10:49 | Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9399999996 | $50.00 |
| 09-28 14:14 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.6699999971 | $50.00 |
| 09-25 16:01 | Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | BUY | 0.75 | $250.00 |
| 09-24 08:42 | Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.4899999944 | $20.00 |
| 09-24 08:42 | Will Trump say "Taiwan" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.960166191 | $50.00 |
| 09-18 22:17 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | BUY | 0.9659994734 | $1.2k |
| 09-18 22:16 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | SELL | 0.0911088308 | $45.73 |
| 09-18 08:42 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999997 | $100.00 |