thunderfrog
0x5a1a32ec6c0b2896a4e9e3d7a48098ec88e92983
- Realised P&L
- $118.04
- Volume
- $41.7k
- Markets traded
- 9,860
- Open portfolio
- $266.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded9,860
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$26.65at 0.026Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 75°F or below on October 5?
- +$19.52at 0.063Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on October 7?
- +$13.41at 0.245Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on October 9?
- +$13.22at 0.239Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on October 12?
- +$12.73at 0.273Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 10?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 06:16 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 23? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 06:14 | Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 23? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 06:12 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 24? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 06:01 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 23? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 06:01 | Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 22? | BUY | 0.7099997501 | $1.25 |
| 10-22 05:51 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 23? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 05:48 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on October 23? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 05:47 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on October 23? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 05:47 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 05:46 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 23? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 05:46 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 23? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 05:46 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on October 23? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 05:46 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 20? | SELL | 0.999 | $2.54 |
| 10-22 05:42 | Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on October 23? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 05:30 | Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 20? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.81 |