mudryklox
0x59c06aa417241d5d930d76f3a856a2cf5ccccd82
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $44.8k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $124.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina vs. Benin: O/U 1.5 · Over | 0.981 | 1.000 | $99.95 | +$1.85 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06? · Yes | 0.982 | 1.000 | $14.19 | +$0.25 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.085 | $8.50 | −$6.50 |
| Will Benin win on 2026-10-06? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $2.12 | −$2.12 |
| Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 · Yes | 0.462 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.410Nets vs. Wizards
- +$1.3kat 0.500Spread: Saints (-1.5)
- +$645.13at 0.610Pistons vs. 76ers
- +$515.69at 0.716Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-25?
- +$500.87at 0.500Royals vs. Guardians
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 22:50 | Argentina vs. Benin: O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.981 | $98.10 |
| 10-06 22:44 | Will Argentina win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.982 | $13.94 |
| 10-05 13:53 | Spread: Saints (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5 | $6.00 |
| 09-28 15:18 | Will Ukraine win on 2026-09-28? | BUY | 0.72 | $97.50 |
| 09-28 15:17 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 07-13 22:22 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.213 | $24.26 |
| 07-13 22:22 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.854 | $25.54 |
| 06-30 12:16 | Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q2 2026 | BUY | 0.462 | $3.66 |
| 05-25 22:49 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY | 0.96 | $3.53 |
| 04-07 07:24 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.918 | $27.46 |
| 02-05 02:40 | Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7883922591 | $28.72 |
| 11-24 10:27 | US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25? | BUY | 0.93 | $26.73 |
| 11-24 10:26 | Manchester United vs. Everton: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.57 | $2.85 |
| 11-01 00:08 | Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? | BUY | 0.88 | $26.03 |
| 09-06 15:52 | Will San Marino win on 2025-09-06? | BUY | 0.987 | $197.40 |