TruePoliticsMan
0x596114d753a0bd91fa8f4212b5132da36de4e1c2
- Realised P&L
- $-317.66
- Volume
- $21.2k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $10.68
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obama arrested before 2027? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.025 | $10.68 | −$39.32 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? · No | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? · Yes | 0.096 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Bill Clinton charged by January 31? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the US strike Syria next? · Yes | 0.166 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$71.00 |
| Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Bill Clinton in jail by January 31? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$106.36at 0.220US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.070New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
- +$-1.95at 0.049US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
- +$-4.35at 0.023US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?
- +$-16.67at 0.180Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 10:50 | Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? | BUY | 0.0141737428 | $11.00 |
| 06-13 10:46 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.5799999959 | $40.00 |
| 04-26 11:30 | Obama arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.117067555 | $50.00 |
| 04-01 13:35 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.0360000002 | $8.00 |
| 03-27 09:39 | Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? | SELL | 0.012 | $6.71 |
| 03-16 15:14 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.032 | $20.00 |
| 03-11 16:55 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $50.00 |
| 03-11 16:55 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY | 0.1299999979 | $50.00 |
| 03-11 16:33 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY | 0.2199999891 | $15.00 |
| 02-18 23:19 | US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999985 | $51.00 |
| 02-18 23:19 | US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.021 | $45.65 |
| 02-18 23:17 | US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999986 | $70.00 |
| 02-18 23:16 | US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.0476331716 | $68.05 |
| 02-18 23:15 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999949 | $30.00 |
| 02-18 23:14 | US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.089999996 | $20.00 |