Gerald8989
0x5935f007d77bbf9633e638d6ff3b27e9ddb68576
- Realised P&L
- $-165.62
- Volume
- $4.1k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $43.70
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)11.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.876 | 0.640 | $24.02 | −$8.85 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.975 | 0.984 | $19.68 | +$0.18 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 16? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.31 |
| Will Lyntris' market cap be between $3B and $3.5B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.176 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.16 |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.385 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.40 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 13? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.25 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 13? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.95at 0.480Will London have between 30-40mm of precipitation in September?
- +$0.14at 0.986Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?
- +$-0.04at 0.220US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?
- +$-0.53at 0.926Will United Russia win the next Kirov Oblast Parliament elections?
- +$-1.85at 0.737Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Espírito Santo?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 20:26 | Will any other model be the best AI model on October 12, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $10.00 |
| 09-29 13:53 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | SELL | 0.1822222222 | $9.84 |
| 09-29 08:56 | Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | SELL | 0.5043607843 | $25.72 |
| 09-26 22:28 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1? | SELL | 0.1225 | $7.35 |
| 09-26 20:11 | Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30? | SELL | 0.645 | $5.16 |
| 09-25 17:33 | Will London have between 30-40mm of precipitation in September? | SELL | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 09-24 21:35 | Will “I Just Might” by Bruno Mars win Best R&B at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.57 | $1.14 |
| 09-24 21:35 | Will “I Just Might” by Bruno Mars win Best R&B at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.57 | $1.14 |
| 09-24 21:35 | Will “I Just Might” by Bruno Mars win Best R&B at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.57 | $1.14 |
| 09-24 21:35 | Will “I Just Might” by Bruno Mars win Best R&B at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.57 | $1.14 |
| 09-23 14:20 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 25 and 30 million views in week 1? | SELL | 0.1152016807 | $13.71 |
| 09-22 07:14 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.03 |
| 09-22 07:09 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 09-02 12:50 | Will the next Mythos-Class model debut as #1? (Text Arena) | SELL | 0.17 | $3.40 |
| 09-02 06:08 | Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon? | SELL | 0.08 | $3.20 |