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0x590ad8fa9986c66c72b455c89ddc01aee3883699
- Realised P&L
- $3.0k
- Volume
- $147.8k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $149.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration30.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nous Research launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.895 | $99.11 | +$21.59 |
| Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.101 | $50.25 | −$49.75 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.161 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.71 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.14 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$38.50 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.46 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.60 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.061Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?
- +$880.86at 0.815Will GRVT launch a token by June 30, 2026?
- +$568.01at 0.669Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
- +$369.85at 0.250US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
- +$314.54at 0.616 MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 09:47 | Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.03 | $14.59 |
| 09-03 09:46 | Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.40 |
| 09-03 09:46 | Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.05 | $4.77 |
| 09-03 09:46 | Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.06 | $19.78 |
| 07-27 18:00 | Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.08 | $29.70 |
| 07-05 09:44 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.061 | $28.06 |
| 07-02 14:11 | Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0255373989 | $2.05 |
| 06-28 16:45 | Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.022 | $1.76 |
| 06-28 16:45 | Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.021 | $1.65 |
| 06-11 15:15 | Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? | SELL | 0.965 | $0.24 |
| 06-11 15:13 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.044 | $50.60 |
| 06-11 14:58 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.17 | $51.00 |
| 06-11 14:57 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.161 | $50.72 |
| 06-11 14:57 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.109 | $50.14 |
| 06-11 14:57 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.109 | $50.14 |