PMPJoel
0x58f3d1d775e8aa5a36c38a38fd358b221f2f4956
- Realised P&L
- $-312.96
- Volume
- $31.0k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $113.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$170.27at 0.370Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$89.13at 0.310Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by December 31?
- +$67.79at 0.205Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
- +$61.19at 0.521Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
- +$45.00at 0.350US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-25 01:23 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.5299999899 | $10.00 |
| 06-11 03:13 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0139999972 | $5.00 |
| 06-11 03:07 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.4599999595 | $5.00 |
| 06-11 02:44 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.93 | $14.54 |
| 06-10 21:55 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.24 |
| 05-28 03:21 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3899998908 | $2.00 |
| 05-28 03:10 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0129999974 | $5.00 |
| 05-28 03:10 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0839999854 | $5.00 |
| 05-28 03:04 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0409999959 | $10.00 |
| 05-28 02:54 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5799999892 | $15.00 |
| 05-28 02:54 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3779991145 | $15.00 |
| 05-28 02:46 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.4199999933 | $20.00 |
| 05-28 02:45 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.64 | $10.00 |
| 05-22 01:51 | Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? | SELL | 0.33 | $2.29 |
| 05-22 01:27 | Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? | BUY | 0.0357064603 | $20.00 |