0x58f1b91487e92Cf65D2843097196212d22D20211-1759786290359
0x58f1b91487e92cf65d2843097196212d22d20211
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $147.5k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $368.36
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration45.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.275 | $254.29 | +$97.43 |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.006 | $61.91 | −$9.08 |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.003 | $52.16 | −$557.79 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.236 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.43at 0.004Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$31.60at 0.445Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$10.56at 0.274Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-28.12at 0.144Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
- +$-39.67at 0.040Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 21:19 | Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.1696333946 | $156.86 |
| 06-09 11:04 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0579999914 | $6.00 |
| 06-09 11:03 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0575455187 | $9.00 |
| 05-23 01:38 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.03 | $83.14 |
| 05-18 21:06 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.03 | $6.86 |
| 05-18 20:55 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.1312463939 | $20.02 |
| 05-18 18:50 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY | 0.1442421148 | $55.00 |
| 05-15 14:55 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.0060783465 | $83.28 |
| 05-13 22:21 | Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0360830362 | $100.00 |
| 05-13 18:30 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.3024345433 | $111.56 |
| 05-11 18:49 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.002 | $6.03 |
| 05-06 16:08 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.005 | $40.23 |
| 05-01 19:32 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0043135603 | $28.90 |
| 05-01 19:13 | Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.004 | $60.19 |
| 04-29 22:59 | Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.0199074304 | $40.00 |