0x58c7c11299dca70c1d8452b3a0bed0eb7d9348fc
0x58c7c11299dca70c1d8452b3a0bed0eb7d9348fc
- Realised P&L
- $-8.62
- Volume
- $327.06
- Markets traded
- 85
- Open portfolio
- $3.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded85
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.785 | 0.943 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No | 0.450 | 0.460 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.556 | 0.534 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.276 | 0.045 | $0.16 | −$0.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.61at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$3.21at 0.389S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6?
- +$3.21at 0.389SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$2.49at 0.452Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$2.39at 0.462Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 17:45 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5559997376 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:40 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 00:45 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7849998783 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 12:43 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6469997943 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:30 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.2759979742 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 16:37 | Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 08:37 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:17 | Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 14:43 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.439999956 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 05:22 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 16:49 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 06:52 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $188 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.43 |
| 09-02 16:12 | Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in August? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 09-02 07:26 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |