48MGX75VLQ
0x58b55115f22fa7f3df9db9b361f573088723df91
- Realised P&L
- $-744.98
- Volume
- $279.8k
- Markets traded
- 219
- Open portfolio
- $989.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded219
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.881 | 0.959 | $306.72 | +$24.72 |
| Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027? · No | 0.949 | 0.962 | $230.90 | +$2.96 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No | 0.977 | 0.977 | $166.00 | −$0.01 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.915 | $91.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.987 | 0.987 | $49.35 | −$0.03 |
| Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? · No | 0.979 | 0.981 | $49.09 | +$0.10 |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? · No | 0.920 | 0.915 | $45.90 | −$0.25 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.645 | $32.25 | +$7.25 |
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.355 | $17.75 | −$7.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.845US-Iran nuclear deal before July?
- +$939.90at 0.500Will Canada join US as 51st state before July?
- +$715.44at 0.673Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June?
- +$394.40at 0.007Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?
- +$266.02at 0.300Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 08:37 | Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $46.15 |
| 10-12 08:36 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.987 | $49.38 |
| 10-12 08:35 | Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.979 | $48.99 |
| 10-12 08:35 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.978 | $48.90 |
| 10-12 08:34 | Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027? | BUY | 0.9772399259 | $21.10 |
| 10-12 08:33 | Will the U.S. national debt hit $42 trillion before 2027? | BUY | 0.9786291708 | $48.98 |
| 09-11 12:52 | Will "The Fix" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.78 |
| 02-11 15:24 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? | BUY | 0.9630133316 | $75.12 |
| 01-05 07:13 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? | BUY | 0.92 | $27.60 |
| 12-05 08:46 | Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? | BUY | 0.99 | $99.00 |
| 12-05 08:44 | Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | SELL | 0.981 | $203.66 |
| 12-05 08:40 | Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition | SELL | 0.9873138763 | $139.88 |
| 12-03 11:27 | Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | BUY | 0.98 | $196.00 |
| 12-03 11:21 | Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? | BUY | 0.98 | $98.00 |
| 07-02 18:09 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | SELL | 0.29 | $5.80 |