amanda22
0x586c7cfc26f2a61420f5b7f610cd53d780e81deb
- Realised P&L
- $516.90
- Volume
- $97.1k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $153.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.299 | 0.295 | $153.72 | −$2.08 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$266.62at 0.945Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$120.27at 0.940Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
- +$75.20at 0.940Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
- +$61.39at 0.928US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
- +$41.31at 0.873MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 10:16 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3091790753 | $90.00 |
| 09-11 04:46 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2858381503 | $61.81 |
| 06-11 23:20 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 06-03 21:42 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.006 | $2.80 |
| 06-03 03:26 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $8.36 |
| 06-03 01:34 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $5.00 |
| 06-03 01:30 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $5.00 |
| 06-03 01:21 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 06-02 23:22 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.06 |
| 06-02 07:58 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.006999993 | $1.00 |
| 06-01 12:00 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999833 | $10.00 |
| 06-01 11:58 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.741 | $37.06 |
| 05-30 00:40 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $500.00 |
| 05-30 00:40 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $100.00 |
| 05-29 02:38 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.989 | $573.31 |