0x58442a0bd290697a1c5abce615e1773dcd67ed28
- Realised P&L
- $3.42
- Volume
- $148.40
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $16.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $316 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.745 | $6.21 | +$4.21 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.232 | 0.354 | $3.06 | +$1.06 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.315 | $2.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.675 | $1.73 | −$0.27 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.320 | 0.230 | $1.44 | −$0.56 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.227 | 0.112 | $0.99 | −$1.01 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.450 | 0.265 | $0.90 | −$0.63 |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.115 | $0.55 | −$1.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.45at 0.310Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.89at 0.460Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.60at 0.550Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.40at 0.590Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.24at 0.588Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 19:36 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 11:36 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $316 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 03:35 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 19:35 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 10:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 02:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2319999285 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 02:12 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.22699993 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 18:03 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.7249999819 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 06:36 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999364 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:33 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 14:08 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:37 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-31 20:36 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-31 12:36 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 01:54 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |