0x5811c8AD5DC5990528357ecf1A6D03311D6c0976-1782550886071
0x5811c8ad5dc5990528357ecf1a6d03311d6c0976
- Realised P&L
- $14.3k
- Volume
- $9.32M
- Markets traded
- 2,846
- Open portfolio
- $52.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,846
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration14.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.792 | $39.6k | +$14.6k |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.207 | $10.4k | −$14.6k |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers · Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.612 | 0.615 | $1.2k | +$5.85 |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners · Minnesota Twins | 0.430 | 0.315 | $245.70 | −$89.70 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 · Over | 0.460 | 0.560 | $218.40 | +$39.00 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 · Under | 0.500 | 0.515 | $200.85 | +$5.85 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs · Chicago Cubs | 0.430 | 0.455 | $149.24 | +$8.20 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 · Over | 0.460 | 0.105 | $143.32 | −$484.57 |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres · San Francisco Giants | 0.450 | 0.095 | $37.05 | −$138.45 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles · Baltimore Orioles | 0.435 | 0.005 | $12.73 | −$994.16 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Athletics · Athletics | 0.478 | 0.001 | $1.78 | −$1.7k |
| Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) · St. Louis Cardinals | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$452.40 |
| Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.07 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds · Cincinnati Reds | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$366.60 |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.1kat 0.036Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?
- +$7.5kat 0.064Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 England?
- +$7.4kat 0.015Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?
- +$7.0kat 0.402France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
- +$5.9kat 0.057Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 10:01 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.65 | $6.50 |
| 07-09 02:07 | Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 | SELL | 0.52 | $709.80 |
| 07-09 02:07 | Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | SELL | 0.28 | $491.40 |
| 07-09 02:07 | Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 | SELL | 0.44 | $343.20 |
| 07-09 02:07 | Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | SELL | 0.42 | $409.50 |
| 07-09 02:07 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres | SELL | 0.41 | $159.90 |
| 07-09 00:02 | Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers | SELL | 0.44 | $171.60 |
| 07-08 23:42 | Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals | SELL | 0.41 | $799.50 |
| 07-08 23:37 | Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins | SELL | 0.53 | $103.35 |
| 07-08 23:37 | Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox | SELL | 0.49 | $878.81 |
| 07-08 23:07 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 | SELL | 0.46 | $301.71 |
| 07-08 23:07 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds | SELL | 0.55 | $21.95 |
| 07-08 23:07 | Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 | SELL | 0.49 | $286.65 |
| 07-08 23:07 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds | SELL | 0.44 | $272.05 |
| 07-08 22:42 | Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 | SELL | 0.44 | $257.40 |