IRL.hedge
0x57dc6a2d0e43e2e55dcce384e19d1bfcd7e2414b
- Realised P&L
- $-6.4k
- Volume
- $762.1k
- Markets traded
- 127
- Open portfolio
- $717.49
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded127
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration77.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.880 | $88.00 | +$3.00 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.850 | $85.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.835 | $83.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.810 | $81.00 | +$8.00 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.790 | $79.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.775 | $77.49 | −$3.50 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.784 | 0.765 | $76.50 | −$1.88 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.755 | $75.50 | −$4.50 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.280 | $42.00 | −$72.00 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.017 | $17.89 | +$4.47 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.889 | 0.107 | $10.69 | −$78.12 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.006 | $0.90 | +$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.094Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
- +$298.99at 0.073Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
- +$212.76at 0.981Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
- +$171.00at 0.275Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven
- +$170.00at 0.983Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 20:56 | Will Sergio Ramos attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? | SELL | 0.24 | $24.00 |
| 10-17 20:53 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 10-17 20:53 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7838 | $78.38 |
| 10-17 20:52 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $73.00 |
| 10-17 20:49 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.189962963 | $15.39 |
| 10-17 11:33 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? | BUY | 0.019 | $0.19 |
| 10-17 11:33 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? | BUY | 0.018 | $0.27 |
| 08-08 20:34 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026? | SELL | 0.99 | $9.06 |
| 07-09 11:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.041 | $14.65 |
| 07-09 11:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.041 | $52.29 |
| 07-09 11:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.041 | $19.60 |
| 07-09 11:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.041 | $15.96 |
| 06-10 20:42 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $31.46 |
| 06-08 09:46 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $78.47 |
| 06-08 09:46 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.45 | $900.00 |