PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

IRL.hedge

0x57dc6a2d0e43e2e55dcce384e19d1bfcd7e2414b

Realised P&L
$-6.4k
Volume
$762.1k
Markets traded
127
Open portfolio
$717.49

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded127
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration77.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026? · Yes0.8500.880$88.00+$3.00
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026? · Yes0.8700.850$85.00−$2.00
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026? · Yes0.8400.835$83.50−$0.50
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026? · Yes0.7300.810$81.00+$8.00
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026? · Yes0.8600.790$79.00−$7.00
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026? · Yes0.8100.775$77.49−$3.50
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026? · Yes0.7840.765$76.50−$1.88
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026? · Yes0.8000.755$75.50−$4.50
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026? · Yes0.7600.280$42.00−$72.00
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? · Yes0.0130.017$17.89+$4.47
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? · Yes0.8890.107$10.69−$78.12
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0050.006$0.90+$0.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-17 20:56Will Sergio Ramos attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?SELL0.24$24.00
10-17 20:53Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?BUY0.8$80.00
10-17 20:53Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?BUY0.7838$78.38
10-17 20:52Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?BUY0.73$73.00
10-17 20:49Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?SELL0.189962963$15.39
10-17 11:33Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?BUY0.019$0.19
10-17 11:33Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?BUY0.018$0.27
08-08 20:34US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?SELL0.99$9.06
07-09 11:40Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.041$14.65
07-09 11:40Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.041$52.29
07-09 11:40Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.041$19.60
07-09 11:40Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?SELL0.041$15.96
06-10 20:42U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? SELL0.86$31.46
06-08 09:46Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?SELL0.82$78.47
06-08 09:46Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?SELL0.45$900.00