ksms999
0x57beef33027c4041d2758ffcd18efc409816e140
- Realised P&L
- $-63.34
- Volume
- $97.3k
- Markets traded
- 297
- Open portfolio
- $42.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded297
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$54.23at 0.186Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$20.38at 0.008Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?
- +$17.04at 0.440Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$16.16at 0.011Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the song of the summer?
- +$15.65at 0.502Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-07 13:34 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 7? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 11:32 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 7? | BUY | 0.3399999694 | $4.00 |
| 09-05 01:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5? | BUY | 0.25 | $3.75 |
| 09-04 20:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5? | BUY | 0.32 | $3.20 |
| 09-03 15:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 3? | BUY | 0.049 | $0.98 |
| 09-02 22:25 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 22:22 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999297 | $1.60 |
| 08-30 21:55 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.29 |
| 08-29 15:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 29? | BUY | 0.04 | $0.60 |
| 08-28 21:33 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.053 | $1.35 |
| 08-25 15:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 25? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.00 |
| 08-25 09:46 | Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0121244194 | $1.96 |
| 08-25 09:44 | Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.49 |
| 08-25 09:39 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $4.96 |
| 08-25 09:39 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $5.95 |