0x57a6adda1e1a169fd3d6e53950f279398f73ba3f
0x57a6adda1e1a169fd3d6e53950f279398f73ba3f
- Realised P&L
- $0.26
- Volume
- $43.81
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $2.24
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 1.000 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.345 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$0.68at 0.600Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?
- +$0.40at 0.718Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?
- +$0.30at 0.769Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 09:38 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:18 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:16 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 08:07 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 11:46 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 01:24 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 15:57 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 04:40 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 04:36 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 18:45 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 10:21 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 02:21 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 04:05 | Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be less than 0.0%? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 19:41 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 07:28 | Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |