dkbot
0x57a0f93c7480701b65eb0620b03106dfcfd1af23
- Realised P&L
- $-70.52
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Markets traded
- 171
- Open portfolio
- $3.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded171
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.954 | $3.03 | +$1.03 |
| Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.125 | $0.83 | −$1.17 |
| Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? · No | 0.126 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.69at 0.260Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy
- +$5.17at 0.279Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
- +$3.88at 0.340Will exactly 60 U.S. senators vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30?
- +$1.21at 0.768Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?
- +$1.01at 0.640Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-20 21:04 | Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.469 | $1.12 |
| 05-20 21:04 | OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.47 |
| 05-20 21:04 | Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $1.50 |
| 05-20 21:04 | Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.53 |
| 05-20 21:03 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $1.98 |
| 05-20 21:03 | Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.988 | $2.02 |
| 05-20 21:02 | Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? | SELL | 0.978 | $2.57 |
| 02-04 01:52 | US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30? | SELL | 0.83 | $0.93 |
| 02-04 01:51 | US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30? | BUY | 0.889999911 | $1.00 |
| 01-20 13:01 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 20-26? | BUY | 0.9919995159 | $2.00 |
| 01-20 13:01 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 20-26? | BUY | 0.988 | $2.00 |
| 01-13 18:23 | Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6679996059 | $1.60 |
| 01-13 16:56 | Will ETHGAS launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999951 | $2.00 |
| 01-13 16:56 | Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $2.00 |
| 01-13 16:56 | Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999555 | $2.00 |