PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x578403f68549876E60B5F663635733E766123823-1772130035655

0x578403f68549876e60b5f663635733e766123823

Realised P&L
$-107.70
Volume
$8.1k
Markets traded
122
Open portfolio
$23.03

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded122
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration53.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · No0.6400.710$12.20+$1.20
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? · Yes0.3500.172$4.44$4.56
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat? · No0.0500.028$2.75$2.25
Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0460.018$1.70$2.70
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026? · Yes0.0950.017$0.87$4.13
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0420.004$0.38$4.18
Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat? · Yes0.0440.004$0.31$2.69
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? · Yes0.1720.003$0.29$19.59
Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026? · Yes0.0610.003$0.09$2.19
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET · Down0.3480.000$0.00$6.39
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET · Up0.5910.000$0.00$4.50
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET · Up0.5780.000$0.00$2.76
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET · Up0.5350.000$0.00$10.13
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET · Up0.3580.000$0.00$5.89
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET · Down0.4000.000$0.00$1.52

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 08:22Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?SELL0.12$5.22
05-31 08:10Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?BUY0.1720294631$19.88
05-31 08:09Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat?BUY0.0440000008$3.00
05-31 08:07Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?BUY0.0945558584$5.00
05-31 08:05Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat?BUY0.05$5.00
05-31 08:03Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?SELL0.12$8.82
05-31 06:06Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?SELL0.5216$26.08
05-28 06:09Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?BUY0.1$5.00
05-28 06:07Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?BUY0.3499999844$9.00
05-28 06:06Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?SELL0.6842633053$12.21
05-20 03:16Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY0.03$3.00
05-20 03:15Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?SELL0.156$5.85
05-18 04:20Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?BUY0.042474508$4.56
05-18 04:17Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?BUY0.06899998$3.00
05-18 04:15Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?SELL0.13$8.26