HarveyDFG
0x5766a6a2adf14f3c1d2c736e4d2c04abbb7b4a42
- Realised P&L
- $-21.50
- Volume
- $13.6k
- Markets traded
- 51
- Open portfolio
- $163.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded51
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Jazz (-1.5) · Jazz | 0.470 | 0.455 | $138.78 | −$4.57 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 19? · Yes | 0.999 | 1.000 | $25.02 | +$0.03 |
| UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) · Tatsuro Taira | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.13 |
| Will BK Hacken win on 2026-07-27? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.71 |
| Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings · Las Vegas Aces | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.07 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.95 |
| Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-18? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$22.55 |
| Patriots vs. Seahawks · Patriots | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.58 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$502.90at 0.500Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$492.94at 0.500Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- +$124.25at 0.500Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election?
- +$124.25at 0.500Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$115.30at 0.500Will KrF win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 03:35 | Spread: Jazz (-1.5) | BUY | 0.47 | $143.35 |
| 10-19 03:32 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $999.00 |
| 10-19 03:32 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.99 |
| 10-19 03:32 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1000.00 |
| 10-19 03:32 | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $988.02 |
| 10-19 03:30 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.00 |
| 10-19 03:30 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.998 | $250.50 |
| 10-19 03:29 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.998 | $751.49 |
| 10-19 03:29 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.01 |
| 10-19 03:29 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.999 | $348.00 |
| 10-19 03:28 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.998 | $252.00 |
| 10-19 03:28 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.999 | $655.00 |
| 10-19 03:28 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.998 | $755.99 |
| 10-19 03:27 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 19? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.00 |
| 10-16 02:36 | Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.998 | $44.95 |