0B06
0x576315d31495f237c216fb1973794838e6111c22
- Realised P&L
- $7.2k
- Volume
- $2.41M
- Markets traded
- 411
- Open portfolio
- $157.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded411
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 29-October 5? · No | 0.927 | 0.755 | $144.01 | −$32.89 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.438 | 0.429 | $12.88 | −$0.26 |
| Will Nikos Androulakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.017 | $0.18 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.7kat 0.526MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$3.7kat 0.338Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
- +$3.5kat 0.767Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?
- +$3.2kat 0.751Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
- +$3.0kat 0.757Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 22:10 | Will Bitcoin dip to $83,000 on October 2? | BUY | 0.95 | $9.46 |
| 10-02 14:32 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.93 |
| 10-02 14:32 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $13.55 |
| 10-02 14:13 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.3k |
| 10-02 11:03 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.438 | $13.14 |
| 10-02 07:00 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.54 | $8.64 |
| 10-01 12:32 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 29-October 5? | BUY | 0.94 | $28.19 |
| 10-01 12:32 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 29-October 5? | BUY | 0.93 | $76.26 |
| 10-01 12:32 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 29-October 5? | BUY | 0.92 | $27.60 |
| 10-01 12:31 | MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase September 29-October 5? | BUY | 0.92 | $44.85 |
| 10-01 04:31 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.63 | $10.08 |
| 09-30 21:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? | BUY | 0.83 | $39.01 |
| 09-29 20:21 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | SELL | 0.98 | $1.6k |
| 09-29 18:26 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | SELL | 0.9885136986 | $2.9k |
| 09-28 18:35 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.9505255251 | $1.2k |