ragnar148
0x5757ac07c0950df98fa906a7fe9f65512ac39e19
- Realised P&L
- $3.4k
- Volume
- $207.1k
- Markets traded
- 1,504
- Open portfolio
- $1.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,504
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on October 4? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.063 | $1.13 | +$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$315.04at 0.422Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21?
- +$308.02at 0.557Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 8?
- +$288.44at 0.071Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15?
- +$262.06at 0.574Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 22?
- +$214.02at 0.545Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 10:45 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on October 4? | BUY | 0.0564102706 | $1.02 |
| 10-03 21:25 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on October 3? | BUY | 0.53 | $5.30 |
| 10-03 21:18 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on October 3? | SELL | 0.9186236633 | $26.63 |
| 10-03 21:09 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on October 3? | BUY | 0.48 | $5.19 |
| 10-03 21:09 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on October 3? | BUY | 0.48 | $9.62 |
| 10-03 21:07 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on October 3? | BUY | 0.44 | $13.20 |
| 10-03 20:57 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on October 3? | BUY | 0.9331010693 | $27.05 |
| 10-03 18:58 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 3? | SELL | 0.1571559322 | $4.64 |
| 10-03 18:16 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 3? | BUY | 0.46 | $13.57 |
| 10-03 18:00 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 3? | BUY | 0.5 | $20.13 |
| 10-03 17:54 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on October 3? | SELL | 0.9146433121 | $40.21 |
| 10-03 17:17 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on October 3? | BUY | 0.8531141947 | $37.50 |
| 10-02 22:00 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on October 2? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.75 |
| 10-02 21:27 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on October 2? | SELL | 0.1476370625 | $7.30 |
| 10-02 21:08 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on October 2? | SELL | 0.81 | $40.09 |